模型 vs 收盘市场

Strong Disagreement

The model rates 青岛中能 considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

最大概率差异: 青岛中能 +24.8 pp

赛果

模型

收盘市场

差异

信号

青岛中能

58.2%

33.4%

+24.8 pp

Model Edge

Draw

22.5%

28.7%

-6.2 pp

Market Higher

天津泰达

19.3%

37.9%

-18.6 pp

Market Higher

The statistical model estimates 青岛中能's win probability at 58.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 33.4%, a difference of 24.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

全场结束后，赛果为 天津泰达 win 0–2。